After Trump's victory, the meme will usher in a bear market?

Recently, Nic Carter, the general partner of Castle Island Ventures, forwarded the tweet of Omid Malekan, a part-time professor at Columbia Business School, saying that the meme craze might begin to fade after Trump won the US presidential election.

The theoretical basis is that memes are essentially products of a strict regulatory environment. Due to the strong regulatory policies of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the financing and issuance models of cryptocurrencies are restricted, and many functions that can give value to tokens (such as fee opening, token dividends, airdrops, etc.) are difficult to implement. Therefore, investors prefer to invest their funds in the speculation of memes.

However, if the Republican Party takes power, it will create a favorable regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency market. Once the regulatory environment in the United States becomes rational, the focus of the cryptocurrency market will return to dApps and other meaningful applications, leading to a significant reduction in demand for cryptocurrency trading.

Cobie: Regulation is not the problem, financing structure is the key

However, many people disagree with the views of Nic Carter and Omid Malekan. Renowned KOL Cobie pointed out that the popularity of memes is due to people's desire to buy things that have the opportunity to rise in price, rather than those with a market value of billions of dollars but have been declining for many years. Therefore, the focus is not on whether the regulatory environment is friendly or unfriendly, but on whether the financing structure of the current market can be changed.

I don't think the position of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has much impact on this trend - the SEC has classified Solana as a security multiple times and forced Robinhood to delist SOL, but it has had little effect on the market's optimism about SOL. If you want non meme tokens to be attractive to meme traders, different fundraising models may be needed, and founders also need to adopt these models

Even after the rotation of political parties in the United States and the SEC's shift towards supporting DeFi, introducing exemptions or sandbox policies, no one wants to buy tokens on Binance at a valuation of over 20 billion, especially when people bought them at a valuation of 200 million in the privilege round a year ago. Anyway, these tokens cannot prove their valuation by paying direct returns to their holders, as they simply cannot earn enough money.

In addition, Cobie further pointed out that the only SEC policy shift that could have an impact is the creation of a crowdfunding like exemption clause for decentralized token projects, and founders must also accept a more decentralized and decentralized "capital structure".

Murad: 99% of meme buyers don't care about politics at all

On the other hand, KOL Murad, who became popular recently because of the meme boom, also said in the message area that the rise of meme was driven more by the continuous growth of global money supply, and even if Trump was elected, this trend would not change.

Buyers of memes do not care whether these tokens have 'legitimate returns' or whether fee mechanisms are enabled. In fact, enabling fee mechanisms actually accelerates the collapse of altcoins, as no one comes to the cryptocurrency market to trade stocks. People come to the cryptocurrency market in search of' parabolic growth '

With the increase of global money supply, the importance of attention will increasingly surpass fundamentals and cash flow. This road will only develop in one direction.

(责任编辑：宏观研究)

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